Phân tích thị trường
Bản tin phái sinh 2026/06/24: Duy trì tín hiệu tích cựcXu hướng tăng đã được xác nhận trong ngắn hạn với các tín hiệu trên giá hợp đồng. Vì thế, nhà đầu tư có thể mở lại các vị thế long với quy mô trung bình thấp.PDFDerivative daily_Vi_20260624
24 tháng 6, 2026
Nhận định thị trường 2026/06/24: Khối ngoại mua ròng trở lạiThị trường ghi nhận phiên tăng điểm thứ hai cùng với sự cải thiện từ thanh khoản, cho thấy dòng tiền đang có dấu hiệu quay trở lại. Tuy nhiên, đà tăng trong phiên đã phần nào hạ nhiệt khi áp lực chốt lời xuất hiện, khiến mức tăng của chỉ số bị thu hẹp đáng kể. Diễn biến này phản ánh tâm lý nhà đầu tư vẫn còn thận trọng, đồng thời cho thấy chỉ số có thể tiếp tục xuất hiện những nhịp rung lắc.PDFBai Daily ngay_Vi_20260624
24 tháng 6, 2026
Tuần 25W26: Lãi suất liên ngân hàng nhích tăng khi NHNN tiếp tục hút ròngTrong tuần 25W26, NHNN đã kéo dài chuỗi hút ròng thanh khoản sang tuần thứ ba liên tiếp, nâng tổng mức rút ròng khỏi hệ thống ngân hàng trong giai đoạn ba tuần này lên 106.60 nghìn tỷ đồng. Hệ quả là đường cong lãi suất liên ngân hàng phẳng lại khi lãi suất ngắn hạn bắt đầu tăng lên trong bối cảnh các điều kiện thanh khoản thắt chặt hơn. Trên phương diện tỷ giá, USDVND nhích tăng lên mức 26,318 và tiếp tục dịch chuyển đi ngang khi đồng USD mạnh lên sau thông điệp diều hâu từ Fed cùng những diễn biến mới tại khu vực Trung Đông.PDFFI-25W26-VIE
23 tháng 6, 2026
Bản tin phái sinh 2026/06/23: Quan sát thêm thanh khoảnXu hướng tăng đã được xác nhận trong ngắn hạn với các tín hiệu trên giá hợp đồng. Vì thế, nhà đầu tư có thể mở lại các vị thế Long với quy mô trung bình thấp.PDFDerivative daily_Vi_20260623
23 tháng 6, 2026
Nhận định thị trường 2026/06/23: Sắc xanh đầu tuầnThị trường ghi nhận tăng điểm, song phần lớn mức tăng của chỉ số đến từ nhóm cổ phiếu Vingroup. Bên cạnh đó, thanh khoản tiếp tục sụt giảm cho thấy tâm lý thận trọng vẫn đang hiện hữu. Do đó, nhà đầu tư nên chờ thêm các tín hiệu tiếp theo từ thị trường.PDFBai Daily ngay_Vi_20260623
23 tháng 6, 2026
Covered warrant 2026/06/23: Thanh khoản tăng nhẹTrong tuần vừa qua, thanh khoản trên thị trường chứng quyền có sự cải thiện nhẹ, tuy nhiên số lượng chứng quyền giảm giá vẫn chiếm ưu thế, phản ánh tâm lý thận trọng vẫn đang hiện hữu. Trong khi đó, thị trường cơ sở ghi nhận diễn biến tích cực hơn khi chỉ số phục hồi nhẹ. Điều này cho thấy dòng tiền đã có dấu hiệu cải thiện, song nhà đầu tư vẫn chưa thực sự đồng thuận về triển vọng tăng trưởng trong ngắn hạn.PDFStrategy CW weekly_Vi_20260623
23 tháng 6, 2026
Market trader 2026/06/23: Dòng tiền gia tăng trở lạiXét theo từng nhóm nhà đầu tư, hoạt động giao dịch ở nhóm cá nhân trong nước và tổ chức trong nước đều đồng thuận tăng, với mức tăng lần lượt là 38.9% và 14.3% so với tuần trước đó.PDFStrategy Market Traders weekly_VI_20260623
23 tháng 6, 2026
Bản tin phái sinh 2026/06/22: Vẫn cần tín hiệu xác nhậnCác tín hiệu kỹ thuật đang thiếu sự đồng nhất. Vì thế, nhà đầu tư cần thêm các tín hiệu xác nhận về xu hướng. Dựa trên tín hiệu này, nhà đầu tư có thể mở lại các vị thế mới.PDFDerivative daily_Vi_20260622
22 tháng 6, 2026
Nhận định thị trường 2026/06/22: Thanh khoản thấpThị trường ghi nhận giảm điểm cùng với thanh khoản suy giảm đáng kể trong bối cảnh diễn ra hoạt động cơ cấu danh mục của các quỹ ETF. Diễn biến này cho thấy dòng tiền vẫn đang duy trì sự thận trọng, do đó, thị trường có thể tiếp tục vận động giằng co trong ngắn hạn trước khi xuất hiện tín hiệu rõ ràng hơn về xu hướng.PDFBai Daily ngay_Vi_20260622
22 tháng 6, 2026
Đồ thị trong ngày 2026/06/22: Chờ tín hiệu xác nhậnCác tín hiệu đang thiếu sự đồng nhất khi một phiên bứt phá đã xuất hiện hàm ý về khả năng đảo chiều xu hướng giảm ngắn hạn. Vì thế nhà đầu tư có thể quan sát thêm các tín hiệu xác nhận trước khi mở lại các vị thế mới.PDFChart of the day_Vi_20260622
22 tháng 6, 2026
Tin tức nổi bật
![GMD – Brief – [NONRATED] – Gemalink drove 1Q26 results](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdms2stj3pztto.cloudfront.net%2Fryzbf1lp%2Fgmd-new.jpg%3Fformat%3Dwebp%26height%3D608%26mode%3Dcrop%26quality%3D80%26width%3D1080&w=3840&q=75)
GMD – Brief – [NONRATED] – Gemalink drove 1Q26 results
In 1Q26, GMD announced a total revenue of VND1,452bn. Port operation generating VND1.4tn revenue (89% of total revenue, -10% QoQ, +14% YoY). Growth was primarily driven by a 15-20% hike in Terminal handling charge which effectively offset a minor contraction in consolidated volume. NPAT came in at VND650bn (+23% YoY).19 tháng 5, 2026
20W26: FX pressure continues as inflationary pressures intensify
In 20W26, the SBV shifts to a modest net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system to balance systemic positions. This cautious absorption of excess funds drives short-term interbank rates slightly higher, while longer-term rates remains unchanged as mid-term liquidity remains ample. On the FX market, USDVND rebounded sharply as the greenback strengthened, driven by mounting inflation expectations stemming from energy supply disruptions while the Iran war continued with no clear resolution in sight. Rising inflationary pressures have increasingly overshadowed the Fed’s easing scenario and fueled concerns over a higher-for-longer interest rate environment in the period ahead.18 tháng 5, 2026
![VOS – Brief – [NONRATED] – Swings to Profitability](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdms2stj3pztto.cloudfront.net%2Fbv0eoaqj%2Fvos.jpg%3Fformat%3Dwebp%26height%3D608%26mode%3Dcrop%26quality%3D80%26width%3D1080&w=3840&q=75)
VOS – Brief – [NONRATED] – Swings to Profitability
In 1Q26, VOS reported VND709bn revenue (-26% QoQ, +53% YoY), and swung back to profitability with a GP of VND39bn. Shipping revenue soars to VND599bn (84% of total revenue, -3% QoQ, +30% YoY) buoyed by rates rally (spot/TC Supramax dry bulk rates up +50%/+22% yoy; MR tanker rates up +47%/+35% yoy). Net profit came in at VND4bn, recovering significantly from the VND54bn loss in 1Q25.15 tháng 5, 2026
Strategic Insight: The start of a new uptrend
Despite the VN-Index approaching its all-time high, the Vietnamese stock market remains undervalued relative to corporate earnings growth and macroeconomic expansion. We therefore believe the market will sustain the upward momentum that began in March 2026, with this trend expected to extend at least through September 2026.12 tháng 5, 2026
19W26: SBV continues net liquidity injection and interbank rates cool down
In 19W26, the SBV continues its net liquidity injection for a third consecutive week at a moderate level to maintain system stability. Additionally, interbank rates have cooled down following recent liquidity injections before the holiday. On the FX front, USDVND reverses its upward trend, tracking the weakening greenback as market sentiment is boosted by hopes of geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East. Despite the softening exchange rate, foreign investors extend their net selling streak on the HoSE to an eighth consecutive week.11 tháng 5, 2026
![Banking - Note - [NEUTRAL] - Resilient growth amid volatility](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdms2stj3pztto.cloudfront.net%2F52kbzshg%2Fbanking-560x330.jpg%3Fformat%3Dwebp%26height%3D608%26mode%3Dcrop%26quality%3D80%26width%3D1080&w=3840&q=75)
Banking - Note - [NEUTRAL] - Resilient growth amid volatility
Aggregated 1Q26 PBT (27 listed banks) surged +14.2% yoy and -3.1% qoq. This strong performance was driven by 1) robust credit growth, 2) recovery of service activities, 3) strong growth from other incomes, and 4) controllable operating expenses. As a result, 1Q26 PBT completed 22% of the 2026 guidance.11 tháng 5, 2026
18W26: SBV maintains net liquidity injection as funding demand spikes
In 18W26, SBV maintains liquidity injections, albeit at a moderate level, to the banking system during holiday week. Specifically, interbank rates rise on short tenors due to increased funding demand ahead of the holiday, while longer-term rates remain stable. In the FX market, USDVND edges higher despite a softening greenback, driven by holiday-related domestic demand and persistent foreign net selling in the equity market.6 tháng 5, 2026
Apr 2026: Medium issuances led by Real Estate and Bank industries
In April, total value of bond issuance declined 20.1% yoy but rose 12.1% mom to VND38,235bn. The Real Estate issued VND13,776bn, -42.1% mom, and accounted for 36.0%. Major issuer was MADC (VND6,200bn) and VHM (VND6,000bn). The Banking issued VND15,100bn with -53.1% yoy, +153.3% mom and accounting for 39.5% of total issuance. TCB was the main issuer with VND6,000bn. The average coupon rate remained 5.3% in April 2026. The Real Estate coupon rate surged to 11.3%, while the banking coupon rate fell to 8.5%. Bond tenors focused on ≤ 3 Years (92.6%).6 tháng 5, 2026
4M26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures
Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April, supported by accelerating industrial production, stable domestic consumption, and sustained FDI inflows. However, external momentum showed signs of softening, with export growth beginning to plateau as early-year order buffers fade. While overall activity continued to expand, downside risks are becoming more visible, particularly through rising inflation driven by geopolitical tensions, with rising input costs as the primary driver of broad-based price pressures across most goods, potentially constraining policy flexibility and posing risks to Vietnam’s growth targets.4 tháng 5, 2026
17W26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures
Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April, supported by accelerating industrial production, stable domestic consumption, and sustained FDI inflows. However, external momentum showed signs of softening, with export growth beginning to plateau as early-year order buffers fade. While overall activity continued to expand, downside risks are becoming more visible, particularly through rising inflation driven by geopolitical tensions, with rising input costs as the primary driver of broad-based price pressures across most goods, potentially constraining policy flexibility and posing risks to Vietnam’s growth targets.4 tháng 5, 2026
16W26: SBV continues net withdrawal as demand cools
This week, the SBV extended its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace, as funding demand eased. Interbank rates declined across tenors alongside lower trading volumes, signalling a continued cooling in liquidity demand, while USDVND entered a consolidation phase. On the FX front, USDVND edged slightly higher despite a softer greenback, as easing tensions in the Middle East reduced upward pressure on the U.S. dollar.21 tháng 4, 2026
15W26: SBV shifts to net liquidity withdrawal as demand cools down
In 15W26, the SBV shifts to a net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system following a week of strong injections, as funding demand begins to cool down. Consequently, interbank rates exhibit a diverging trend; short end rates rise due to heavy repo maturities, while longer term rates decrease slightly as mid-term liquidity remains stable. On the FX front, USDVND edges lower after six consecutive weeks of gains, tracking a significant softening of the greenback as U.S.–Iran tensions enter a negotiation phase and global energy prices decline.13 tháng 4, 2026
14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter
This week, the SBV stepped up liquidity injections as demand picked up at the start of 2nd quarter after credit room was largely used up in the previous one, alongside elevated interbank rates and continued upward pressure on USDVND. Interbank rates have since eased following strong OMO injections, especially at medium tenors, while trading volumes rose, signaling a rebound in liquidity demand. On the FX front, USDVND extended its uptrend for a sixth consecutive week, though at a slower pace, as the greenback softened slightly but remained elevated amid ongoing Middle East tensions.7 tháng 4, 2026
Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook
The stock market faces significant short-term pressure as rising oil prices create inflationary pressure and slow economic growth. However, market valuations have become attractive, with over 75% of tracked stocks at undervaluation and the economy's long-term recovery.7 tháng 4, 2026
3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester
Vietnam’s economic performance in March and the first quarter showed solid momentum. Trade and industrial production remained resilient, while consumption stayed robust, supported by record tourist arrivals. FDI inflows were a key highlight, recording impressive growth. GDP expanded by 7.83% in 1Q26 — marking the highest first-quarter growth in over a decade, even as the pace moderated slightly from the previous quarter, these impressive figures continue to paint a bright and promising picture so far. However, downside risks are emerging more rapidly and severely than expected. Inflation accelerated sharply in March, almost single-handedly driven by surging energy prices amid the persistent tensions in the Middle East. Should the energy crisis persist, inflationary pressures could intensify further and spill over to other goods and services. This, in turn, risks adding a somber dark shade to the bright economic canvas that has been so promisingly painted and poses challenges to Vietnam’s ambitious double-digit growth target—especially as even stronger growth will be needed in the coming quarters to sustain the current trajectory.6 tháng 4, 2026
13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists
In 13W26, the SBV conducted a modest net liquidity injection into the banking system by rolling over repo operations to offset a substantial value of maturing repos. This action aimed to mitigate immediate upward pressure on interbank rates as liquidity conditions remained tight. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fifth consecutive week amid persistent Middle East tensions, elevated global inflation risks, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, and sustained domestic foreign capital outflows.30 tháng 3, 2026
12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions
In 12W26, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace as funding demand in the banking system normalized. On the interbank market, short term rates edged higher while longer tenors remained broadly unchanged, consistent with the SBV withdrawal stance. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fourth consecutive week as escalating Middle East conflicts fueled global inflation pressures, impacting the Fed's interest rate trajectory and maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts. Domestically, these global uncertainties combined with sustained foreign capital outflows continued to weigh on the exchange rate.23 tháng 3, 2026
11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates
In 11W26, the SBV shifted to a substantial net liquidity withdrawal to absorb excess funds as post holiday funding pressure fully subsided, while interbank rates showed a clear divergence as short term rates continued to ease amid cautious sentiment. On the FX front, USDVND continued to rise for a third consecutive week as the greenback regained strength amid escalating tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Iran. The heightened geopolitical risks have raised concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supply, which in turn has supported demand for the U.S. dollar while putting pressure on many currencies.16 tháng 3, 2026
10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates
In 10W26, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection by rolling over repo contracts to prevent system tightening, while interbank rates eased as funding demand stabilized. On the FX front, USDVND climbed as the greenback regained strength amid escalating Middle East conflicts and renewed tariff concerns. Globally, the dollar was supported by safe haven demand as inflation risks remained elevated, leading the market to continue to expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming meeting despite a softer labor market. Domestically, the exchange rate faced additional pressure from sustained foreign capital outflows on the equity market, pushing both bank and shadow market rates higher.9 tháng 3, 2026
2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks
The latest socio-economic report indicates that economic activity in Vietnam slowed noticeably in February, largely due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Industrial production and trade volumes softened during this period as many businesses temporarily suspended or reduced operations to accommodate family gatherings and festive preparations. Meanwhile, inflation picked up more clearly, driven by stronger consumer demand ahead of the celebrations, particularly for food, goods, and services, although these seasonal price pressures are expected to ease gradually and return to normal levels in the coming months as the holiday effects fade. Looking ahead, external risks are intensifying amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. These developments could drive commodity prices higher, primarily through supply disruptions and pass-through effects on global energy prices, thereby raising inflation risks in the period ahead. Should these pressures persist, they would pose additional challenges to the global economic outlook, with direct implications for Vietnam’s economy in the coming months.6 tháng 3, 2026
Ưu đãi nổi bật
GMD – Brief – [NONRATED] – Gemalink drove 1Q26 results
In 1Q26, GMD announced a total revenue of VND1,452bn. Port operation generating VND1.4tn revenue (89% of total revenue, -10% QoQ, +14% YoY). Growth was primarily driven by a 15-20% hike in Terminal handling charge which effectively offset a minor contraction in consolidated volume. NPAT came in at VND650bn (+23% YoY).19 tháng 5, 2026
20W26: FX pressure continues as inflationary pressures intensify
In 20W26, the SBV shifts to a modest net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system to balance systemic positions. This cautious absorption of excess funds drives short-term interbank rates slightly higher, while longer-term rates remains unchanged as mid-term liquidity remains ample. On the FX market, USDVND rebounded sharply as the greenback strengthened, driven by mounting inflation expectations stemming from energy supply disruptions while the Iran war continued with no clear resolution in sight. Rising inflationary pressures have increasingly overshadowed the Fed’s easing scenario and fueled concerns over a higher-for-longer interest rate environment in the period ahead.18 tháng 5, 2026
VOS – Brief – [NONRATED] – Swings to Profitability
In 1Q26, VOS reported VND709bn revenue (-26% QoQ, +53% YoY), and swung back to profitability with a GP of VND39bn. Shipping revenue soars to VND599bn (84% of total revenue, -3% QoQ, +30% YoY) buoyed by rates rally (spot/TC Supramax dry bulk rates up +50%/+22% yoy; MR tanker rates up +47%/+35% yoy). Net profit came in at VND4bn, recovering significantly from the VND54bn loss in 1Q25.15 tháng 5, 2026
Strategic Insight: The start of a new uptrend
Despite the VN-Index approaching its all-time high, the Vietnamese stock market remains undervalued relative to corporate earnings growth and macroeconomic expansion. We therefore believe the market will sustain the upward momentum that began in March 2026, with this trend expected to extend at least through September 2026.12 tháng 5, 2026
19W26: SBV continues net liquidity injection and interbank rates cool down
In 19W26, the SBV continues its net liquidity injection for a third consecutive week at a moderate level to maintain system stability. Additionally, interbank rates have cooled down following recent liquidity injections before the holiday. On the FX front, USDVND reverses its upward trend, tracking the weakening greenback as market sentiment is boosted by hopes of geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East. Despite the softening exchange rate, foreign investors extend their net selling streak on the HoSE to an eighth consecutive week.11 tháng 5, 2026
Banking - Note - [NEUTRAL] - Resilient growth amid volatility
Aggregated 1Q26 PBT (27 listed banks) surged +14.2% yoy and -3.1% qoq. This strong performance was driven by 1) robust credit growth, 2) recovery of service activities, 3) strong growth from other incomes, and 4) controllable operating expenses. As a result, 1Q26 PBT completed 22% of the 2026 guidance.11 tháng 5, 2026
18W26: SBV maintains net liquidity injection as funding demand spikes
In 18W26, SBV maintains liquidity injections, albeit at a moderate level, to the banking system during holiday week. Specifically, interbank rates rise on short tenors due to increased funding demand ahead of the holiday, while longer-term rates remain stable. In the FX market, USDVND edges higher despite a softening greenback, driven by holiday-related domestic demand and persistent foreign net selling in the equity market.6 tháng 5, 2026
Apr 2026: Medium issuances led by Real Estate and Bank industries
In April, total value of bond issuance declined 20.1% yoy but rose 12.1% mom to VND38,235bn. The Real Estate issued VND13,776bn, -42.1% mom, and accounted for 36.0%. Major issuer was MADC (VND6,200bn) and VHM (VND6,000bn). The Banking issued VND15,100bn with -53.1% yoy, +153.3% mom and accounting for 39.5% of total issuance. TCB was the main issuer with VND6,000bn. The average coupon rate remained 5.3% in April 2026. The Real Estate coupon rate surged to 11.3%, while the banking coupon rate fell to 8.5%. Bond tenors focused on ≤ 3 Years (92.6%).6 tháng 5, 2026
4M26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures
Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April, supported by accelerating industrial production, stable domestic consumption, and sustained FDI inflows. However, external momentum showed signs of softening, with export growth beginning to plateau as early-year order buffers fade. While overall activity continued to expand, downside risks are becoming more visible, particularly through rising inflation driven by geopolitical tensions, with rising input costs as the primary driver of broad-based price pressures across most goods, potentially constraining policy flexibility and posing risks to Vietnam’s growth targets.4 tháng 5, 2026
17W26: Stable growth amid mounting inflation pressures
Vietnam’s economy remained resilient in April, supported by accelerating industrial production, stable domestic consumption, and sustained FDI inflows. However, external momentum showed signs of softening, with export growth beginning to plateau as early-year order buffers fade. While overall activity continued to expand, downside risks are becoming more visible, particularly through rising inflation driven by geopolitical tensions, with rising input costs as the primary driver of broad-based price pressures across most goods, potentially constraining policy flexibility and posing risks to Vietnam’s growth targets.4 tháng 5, 2026
16W26: SBV continues net withdrawal as demand cools
This week, the SBV extended its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace, as funding demand eased. Interbank rates declined across tenors alongside lower trading volumes, signalling a continued cooling in liquidity demand, while USDVND entered a consolidation phase. On the FX front, USDVND edged slightly higher despite a softer greenback, as easing tensions in the Middle East reduced upward pressure on the U.S. dollar.21 tháng 4, 2026
15W26: SBV shifts to net liquidity withdrawal as demand cools down
In 15W26, the SBV shifts to a net liquidity withdrawal from the banking system following a week of strong injections, as funding demand begins to cool down. Consequently, interbank rates exhibit a diverging trend; short end rates rise due to heavy repo maturities, while longer term rates decrease slightly as mid-term liquidity remains stable. On the FX front, USDVND edges lower after six consecutive weeks of gains, tracking a significant softening of the greenback as U.S.–Iran tensions enter a negotiation phase and global energy prices decline.13 tháng 4, 2026
14W26: SBV ramped up liquidity injection ahead of the new quarter
This week, the SBV stepped up liquidity injections as demand picked up at the start of 2nd quarter after credit room was largely used up in the previous one, alongside elevated interbank rates and continued upward pressure on USDVND. Interbank rates have since eased following strong OMO injections, especially at medium tenors, while trading volumes rose, signaling a rebound in liquidity demand. On the FX front, USDVND extended its uptrend for a sixth consecutive week, though at a slower pace, as the greenback softened slightly but remained elevated amid ongoing Middle East tensions.7 tháng 4, 2026
Strategic Insight: Focus on the long-term bullish outlook
The stock market faces significant short-term pressure as rising oil prices create inflationary pressure and slow economic growth. However, market valuations have become attractive, with over 75% of tracked stocks at undervaluation and the economy's long-term recovery.7 tháng 4, 2026
3M26: Growth moderated while geopolitical wounds begin to fester
Vietnam’s economic performance in March and the first quarter showed solid momentum. Trade and industrial production remained resilient, while consumption stayed robust, supported by record tourist arrivals. FDI inflows were a key highlight, recording impressive growth. GDP expanded by 7.83% in 1Q26 — marking the highest first-quarter growth in over a decade, even as the pace moderated slightly from the previous quarter, these impressive figures continue to paint a bright and promising picture so far. However, downside risks are emerging more rapidly and severely than expected. Inflation accelerated sharply in March, almost single-handedly driven by surging energy prices amid the persistent tensions in the Middle East. Should the energy crisis persist, inflationary pressures could intensify further and spill over to other goods and services. This, in turn, risks adding a somber dark shade to the bright economic canvas that has been so promisingly painted and poses challenges to Vietnam’s ambitious double-digit growth target—especially as even stronger growth will be needed in the coming quarters to sustain the current trajectory.6 tháng 4, 2026
13W26: Upward pressure on USDVND persists
In 13W26, the SBV conducted a modest net liquidity injection into the banking system by rolling over repo operations to offset a substantial value of maturing repos. This action aimed to mitigate immediate upward pressure on interbank rates as liquidity conditions remained tight. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fifth consecutive week amid persistent Middle East tensions, elevated global inflation risks, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, and sustained domestic foreign capital outflows.30 tháng 3, 2026
12W26: USDVND under pressure amid prolonged Middle East tensions
In 12W26, the SBV continued its net liquidity withdrawal for a second consecutive week at a strong pace as funding demand in the banking system normalized. On the interbank market, short term rates edged higher while longer tenors remained broadly unchanged, consistent with the SBV withdrawal stance. On the FX front, USDVND edged higher for the fourth consecutive week as escalating Middle East conflicts fueled global inflation pressures, impacting the Fed's interest rate trajectory and maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts. Domestically, these global uncertainties combined with sustained foreign capital outflows continued to weigh on the exchange rate.23 tháng 3, 2026
11W26: SBV withdraws liquidity amid diverging interbank rates
In 11W26, the SBV shifted to a substantial net liquidity withdrawal to absorb excess funds as post holiday funding pressure fully subsided, while interbank rates showed a clear divergence as short term rates continued to ease amid cautious sentiment. On the FX front, USDVND continued to rise for a third consecutive week as the greenback regained strength amid escalating tensions in the Middle East between the United States and Iran. The heightened geopolitical risks have raised concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supply, which in turn has supported demand for the U.S. dollar while putting pressure on many currencies.16 tháng 3, 2026
10W26: SBV returns to net liquidity injection amid cooling interbank rates
In 10W26, the SBV returned to a net liquidity injection by rolling over repo contracts to prevent system tightening, while interbank rates eased as funding demand stabilized. On the FX front, USDVND climbed as the greenback regained strength amid escalating Middle East conflicts and renewed tariff concerns. Globally, the dollar was supported by safe haven demand as inflation risks remained elevated, leading the market to continue to expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming meeting despite a softer labor market. Domestically, the exchange rate faced additional pressure from sustained foreign capital outflows on the equity market, pushing both bank and shadow market rates higher.9 tháng 3, 2026
2M26: Seasonal lull amid mounting geopolitical risks
The latest socio-economic report indicates that economic activity in Vietnam slowed noticeably in February, largely due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Industrial production and trade volumes softened during this period as many businesses temporarily suspended or reduced operations to accommodate family gatherings and festive preparations. Meanwhile, inflation picked up more clearly, driven by stronger consumer demand ahead of the celebrations, particularly for food, goods, and services, although these seasonal price pressures are expected to ease gradually and return to normal levels in the coming months as the holiday effects fade. Looking ahead, external risks are intensifying amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. These developments could drive commodity prices higher, primarily through supply disruptions and pass-through effects on global energy prices, thereby raising inflation risks in the period ahead. Should these pressures persist, they would pose additional challenges to the global economic outlook, with direct implications for Vietnam’s economy in the coming months.6 tháng 3, 2026
